Utah State broke a 10-game, 23-year NCAA tournament drought with a convincing 88-72 win over No. 9 seed TCU on Friday night. Ian Martinez led the Aggies in scoring with 21 points, while Issac Johnson contributed a career high 19 points, 4 blocks, and one iconic sticking out of his tongue.
As Aggie fans know, rent is due again, this time against the No. 1 seed Purdue Boilermakers. Our NCAA Tournament predictions give Purdue a 91.3% chance of winning Sunday. Let’s take a closer look at the heavy favorite.
Scouting Purdue
Purdue is led by reigning National Player of the Year Zach Edey, who is quite simply one of the best college basketball players of all time. At 7-4, he protects the rim with authority and is practically unguardable by any individual player.
Last year, the Boilermakers were excellent but vulnerable. Purdue finished at the top of a stacked Big Ten and earned a No. 1 seed. However, No. 16 seed Fairleigh Dickinson pulled off a shocking upset by bringing constant pressure to Edey with a slew of smaller players, forcing the ball out of his hands and into the hands of freshman guards Fletcher Loyer and Braden Smith. The freshmen wilted under the bright lights of the NCAA tournament, combining for 6-20 shooting and 10 turnovers, and the Boilermakers entered into the infamous company of Virginia.
This year, Purdue is a year older and a year more experienced. Edey is more comfortable guarding on the perimeter when necessary, and Loyer and Smith have matured into a solid sophomore backcourt. They won a loaded Maui Invitational in November, ran away with the Big Ten regular season title, and dispatched No. 16 seed Grambling on the strength of a 30 point, 21 rebound performance from Edey.
Edey has averaged 31.4 minutes per game on the season. In those minutes when he is on the floor, Purdue is nearly unstoppable. Purdue is outscoring opponents by 26.6 points per 100 possessions with their star center in the game. Defensively, opponents are held to a 46% effective field goal percentage, rebound just 24% of their missed shots, and get to the free throw line at a rate that would be worst in America over a full season, resulting in an overall 97.4 points/100. Offensively, the Boilermakers shoot the ball at a blistering 58% eFG%, rebound 39% of their misses, and get to the line at a top 10 rate nationally. Teams that face Purdue, on average, get turned into 13-19 New Mexico State when Zach Edey is on the floor.
Without Zach Edey, however, the Boilermakers are fairly mediocre on average. Purdue has eight five-man units sans Edey that have logged at least 10 minutes together on the season. In these 115 minutes, Purdue has scores 104.3 points/100 and allows a whopping 115.4. Opponents get better shots without Edey on the floor, attempting 37% of shots at the rim and 41% from three versus 28% and 36% respectively. Purdue’s offense shares the ball less (56% assist rate versus 67%) and turns it over more (20% versus 15%). Clearly, the best way to beat Zach Edey is to beat everyone besides Zach Edey.
The challenge to keeping Edey off the floor lies in some of his greatest strengths compared to the “typical” 7-4 center: conditioning and defending without fouling. Edey has played almost 32 minutes per game for the last two seasons and averaged fewer than two fouls per game in each. He stays on the ground (it helps when you don’t need to jump to contest a shot) and uses his hands wisely. As a result, Edey hasn’t fouled out of a game this season.
That being said, he has gotten into spots of foul trouble over the course of the season. Edey has picked up two fouls in the first half in 10 of Purdue’s 34 games this year. In eight of them, Edey played less than a minute for the rest of the half. The two exceptions were in a home win over Minnesota, where Edey committed his second foul with 13:36 remaining but played 6 more minutes in the half, and the Big Ten tournament loss to Wisconsin, where he had two fouls in two minutes thanks to a loose ball foul combined with a technical foul and played just four more minutes that half.
Utah State’s Plan
If the best way to beat Purdue is to keep Zach Edey in foul trouble, then Utah State may be better equipped than most to pull off the upset. Mountain West Player of the Year Great Osobor is elite at drawing fouls, drawing 7.4 fouls per game. Osobor has drawn at least 10 fouls in nine games this season, including an absurd 20 fouls in the Mountain West tournament against Fresno State. Zach Edey will obviously be a much different challenge than the diminutive front line of the Bulldogs, but his ability to put the Naismith Award winner on the bench (while not getting in foul trouble himself against the nation’s best player at drawing fouls) will be the key to Utah State keeping this game close.
As with most upsets, a fair amount of shot-making luck will be needed on Sunday as well. In particular, 7-2 Isaac Johnson could make the Purdue defense very uncomfortable by hitting a few outside shots early. If USU can force Purdue out of its primary defensive coverages that keep Edey in his comfort zone around the rim, that can open up driving lanes for Ian Martinez and Mason Falslev and get the Aggie offense into the kind of groove they enjoyed Friday against TCU.
USU will also need to be much more mindful of how they clean the glass. Edey is a nightmare to box out for even the best defensive rebounding teams, and Utah State hasn’t exactly been the best defensive rebounding team as of late. The Aggies tend to be very aggressive contesting shots at the rim, leaving offensive rebound opportunities on the weak side. USU may need to dial back that aggression when a non-Edey player is shooting to limit Edey’s second chance opportunities.
Utah State certainly has a tall task ahead of themselves. It’s likely going to require gaining a big advantage in turnover margin, getting to the line, and making shots from the outside and at the line. Play a clean game in those facets, and we might be talking about a program-defining win come Monday.