The Mountain West regular season finished with a flourish as Utah State came from behind to beat New Mexico and take the outright conference title. Now comes perhaps the most highly anticipated Mountain West tournament in the conference’s quarter century history, starting with the first round on Wednesday. Here’s what to look for over the next four days at the Thomas & Mack.
Projected Conference Standings
Forecast data as of Sun, Mar 24.
Favorite: San Diego State
The San Diego State Aztecs are a step behind last year’s team that won the Mountain West tournament and springboarded themselves to the national championship game. The defense is very good (16th best in Def Rtg) but not the elite unit of previous years, and their offense when Jaedon LeDee isn’t on the floor is as stagnant as rush hour traffic on I-5. It’s no wonder that the Aztecs have struggled to win away from home and fell all the way to the five seed following a home loss to Boise State in the season finale.
Yet, I can’t think of any other team better built to win three games in three days than SDSU. The bench depth, while less formidable than the nine-deep roster of a year ago, is still a step above their conference foes. Aztec fans travel to Vegas in greater numbers than about any other fan base in the conference (with the possible exception of New Mexico). And in a setting where shooting percentages tend to dip (especially in the final), there’s no team better suited to win a rock fight.
Challenger: Utah State
The top-seeded Utah State Aggies are the #1 seed for the first time in their ten years in the Mountain West. Apart from the very fun and cool things like cutting down nets, winning awards, and quote tweeting the MW preseason rankings, this also means that they have a chance to reach their first-ever early semifinal. The difference between a 17 hour turnaround versus 14 hours can mean the difference between getting a full night’s rest and a morning shootaround and having to choose between the two. USU will face the winner of Wyoming-Fresno State in the first round, which is noteworthy because neither of those teams is a part of the Mountain West’s heptagon of destruction. They have the easiest road of any team in their quest to sweep the Mountain West titles.
Darkhorse: New Mexico
The sixth-seeded New Mexico Lobos are watching their NCAA tournament hopes slip away. A shocking home loss to Air Force sent the Lobos reeling, falling out of a first round bye entirely. Despite passing the eye test, their thin tournament resume means New Mexico is going to need to pick up a big win or two in Vegas to get themselves back into the field. UNM is dangerous under any circumstances, but with their backs against the wall plus an expected strong showing from their rabid fanbase, the Lobos seem downright terrifying.
Projected NCAA Tournament Seeds
Here’s where the top schools project into the NCAA tournament, per UState Bracketology.
| Team | Projection |
|---|---|
| Utah State | 5 seed |
| Nevada | 5 seed |
| San Diego State | 6 seed |
| Boise State | 8 seed |
| Colorado State | 9 seed |
| New Mexico | 11 seed, Last Four In |
| UNLV | Win MW Tournament |