The Mountain West tournament is finally here! The tournament starts with three first round games on Sunday, followed by quarterfinal action on Monday, the semifinals on Tuesday, and the final on Wednesday night. Here’s what to look for over the next four days in Las Vegas.
Conference Tournament Projection
Forecast data as of Sat, Mar 09.
Favorite: UNLV
The UNLV Lady Rebels, ranked #23 in the country and fresh off 59 and 60 point victories in their last two conference games, are the overwhelming favorite to win the Mountain West Tournament. For perspective, the only teams with greater chances of winning their tournament according to our Conference Tournament Projections are #1 South Carolina (has lost one game in the last two years), #15 Gonzaga (undefeated in the WCC with a highly favorable tournament format), and Florida Gulf Coast (has the all-time highest winning percentage in college basketball).
The Lady Rebels have the league’s best player (Desi-Rae Young), three-point shooter (Alyssa Durazo-Frescas, 45.3%), another top-three rebounder (Alyssa Brown), and three players in the top ten in Player Efficiency Rating (Young, Amarachi Kimpson, Nneka Obiazor). At 17-1 in conference play, they have the third best Mountain West record since realignment, behind only the 2015-15 CSU Rams and last year’s Lady Rebels. The sheer amount of talent on Lindy La Rocque’s squad is unmatched. Few teams have hung with UNLV for a whole game, and only one has managed to win…
Challenger: New Mexico
The second-seeded New Mexico Lobos come into the tournament with two advantages over the rest of the Mountain West field: a comparatively easy route to the final, and a win in Las Vegas over UNLV. On January 20th, the Lobos went into the Cox Pavilion and stunned the then-#25 Lady Rebels 69-66. UNM played a pretty clean game, shooting 42% from the field and 47% from distance while committing just 11 turnovers. Viane Cumber led the Lobos with 22 points (including 6 threes!) and 7 rebounds, while Aniya Augmon added 15 points, 7 rebounds, and 7 assists. New Mexico is going to need stellar performances again from those two, plus leading scorer Nyah Wilson (15.3 ppg) if they want to pull off another shocker in Vegas.
Darkhorse: Colorado State
The fifth-seeded Colorado State Rams feel like the ultimate RollerCoaster Tycoon ride: high Excitement from the stellar play of reigning Player of the Year McKenna Hofschild, very high Intensity in close losses to UNLV (2x), SDSU, and Wyoming as well as thrilling wins over New Mexico and Wyoming, and moderate Nausea from ugly road losses at Nevada, Air Force, and SJSU. By our Net Ratings, CSU is the second best team in the conference. By vibes, they can be anywhere from the second best to the second worst team in the conference depending on the day. They face off against a Nevada team in the quarterfinals that is eighth in Net Rating and has both won at New Mexico and lost at home to Utah State. Could CSU knock off UNLV and reach the Diamond Heights of the NCAA tournament? Or could they fall flat against Nevada and render this season a Fiasco Forest?
Projected NCAA Tournament Seeds
Here’s where the Lady Rebels project into the NCAA tournament, per CBS Sports.
| Team | Projection |
|---|---|
| UNLV | 8 seed |
Kevin’s Broadcast Schedule: Utah State vs. Boise State
3/9, 7 PM PT (Varsity app, 107.7 FM in Cache Valley), Las Vegas, NV
Eleventh seed Utah State will face the sixth seed Boise State Broncos in the final game of Sunday’s first round action. Ajay Salvesen and Kevin Floyd will be on the call from the Thomas & Mack Center on the Utah State Radio Network, while the video feed can be found at the Mountain West Network.