The final weekend of the Mountain West’s regular season is upon us. The 8-9 matchup between Wyoming and Fresno State is set, but everything else is up for grabs over Friday and Saturday. Let’s look at the scenarios.
Projected Conference Standings
Data through games of Thu, Mar 07.
Here’s where each team stands going into the last round of games, with seed probabilities as determined by our Net Ratings.
Utah State
Utah State (13-4) has clinched a share and controls their own destiny for an outright Mountain West title, but has a challenging home finale against New Mexico.
1 seed: 65.0%
2 seed: 35.0%
Nevada
Nevada (12-5) hosts UNLV in a very important Silver State rivalry game, and could get the #1 seed with some help.
1 seed: 35.0%
2 seed: 46.8%
3 seed: 12.6%
4 seed: 5.6%
UNLV
UNLV (12-5) travels to Reno to try to take a top 2 seed (or even a conference title) at the expense of their hated rivals.
2 seed: 18.2%
4 seed: 81.8%
Boise State
Boise State (12-5) could win a share of the Mountain West title with help, but can’t rise any higher than the 3 seed due to sweeps at the hands of USU and UNLV.
3 seed: 30.5%
5 seed: 69.5%
San Diego State
San Diego State (11-6) lost a chance at a regular season title on Tuesday but still has a lot riding on their season finale against Boise State on Friday.
3 seed: 56.8%
4 seed: 12.6%
5 seed: 17.5%
6 seed: 13.1%
New Mexico
New Mexico (10-7) is squarely on the NCAA tournament bubble and needs a win at Utah State to move safely into the tournament field.
5 seed: 13.1%
6 seed: 76.8%
7 seed: 10.1%
Colorado State
Colorado State (9-8) no longer has a chance at a first round bye, and needs help to move into the 6 seed.
6 seed: 10.1%
7 seed: 89.9%
Wyoming
Wyoming (7-10) has clinched the 8 seed regardless of the outcome of Saturday’s game vs. Fresno State.
Fresno State
Fresno State (4-13) has clinched the 9 seed and will face Wyoming again in Vegas after Saturday’s tilt in Laramie.
San José State
San José State (2-16) concluded their season on Wednesday against USU, and await their opponent in the Mountain West tournament.
10 seed: 97.0%
11 seed: 3.0%
Air Force
Air Force (2-15) can clinch the 10 seed with a win in their home finale against Colorado State, and have a chance to face the Rams again in Vegas.
10 seed: 3.0%
11 seed: 97.0%
Projected NCAA Tournament Seeds
Here’s where the top schools project into the NCAA tournament, per UState Bracketology.
| Team | Projection |
|---|---|
| Nevada | 5 seed |
| Utah State | 6 seed |
| San Diego State | 7 seed |
| Boise State | 9 seed |
| Colorado State | 10 seed |
| New Mexico | 11 seed, Last Team In |
| UNLV | Win MW Tournament |