The Mountain West’s Wednesday slate of games generally as expected, though with some tight finishes in Fort Collins, Albuquerque, and Vegas. Saturday, on the other hand? Whackadoodle, bonkers, nonsensical, and outrageous. Let’s dive into a bizarre week of results.
Team of the Week: Air Force
Through the first 16 games of conference play, Air Force performed as most Chris Gobrecht-led teams have performed: tough, physical, disciplined, and relentless. Against Utah State on Wednesday, the Falcons turned into an indomitable force of nature en route to an 85-46 Senior Day win, their largest ever in Mountain West play. They suffocated the Aggies defensively, forcing 19 turnovers and holding them to 25% shooting, and blitzed them from long range to the tune of 12/28 from three.
On Saturday, Air Force went to Boise and nearly ran the Broncos out of the gym through three quarters, leading 59-43. “Nearly”, however, as the Falcons did another uncharacteristic thing in the fourth quarter: squander the massive lead they had built over the first 30 minutes. Late heroics from Milahnie Perry and an errant final attempt from Boise State saved the day for the Academy, upsetting BSU 67-66.
This week didn’t do anything to change the Falcons’ postseason prospects; they remain locked into the 8-9 game after finishing the season with an 8-10 conference record. (The result of New Mexico-Fresno State on Tuesday will only affect jersey colors for their first round matchup.) With this recent flurry and a full week to rest before facing the Bulldogs on Sunday morning, Air Force could cause some chaos in the Mountain West Tournament.
Player of the Week: Allyson Fertig
The Wyoming Cowgirls entered the week on a four-game losing streak that plummeted them from 2nd place with an outside shot at a conference title to 4th place with a risk of losing a first round bye entirely. Junior center Allyson Fertig made sure that slump wouldn’t extend any further, putting up a hyper-efficient 13-10 double double in a win at San José State on Wednesday and added a monster 24-10 performance in a home win over Fresno State. In a week where New Mexico, Boise State (2x), Colorado State, and Nevada all stumbled, simply circling the wagons and taking right against two lower-tier teams is a significant accomplishment. Fertig has the Cowgirls back in a tie for 2nd place and potentially reestablished as a threat to UNLV in the Mountain West Tournament.
Game to Watch: Boise State at Colorado State
3/5, 6:30 PM MT (Mountain West Network), Fort Collins, CO
Just one round of games remains in the Mountain West regular season, but pretty much nothing is settled apart from UNLV as the top seed. This matchup in Fort Collins is perhaps the most variable of all the games on the MW slate. Boise State could finish anywhere from a 2 seed to a 6 seed depending on other results, while the Rams could end up anywhere from the 4 seed to the 7 seed. This will be the first and only meeting between two of the most electric point guards in the conference, BSU’s Mary Kay Naro and CSU’s McKenna Hofschild. Both teams are desperate for a win and a first round bye in Vegas. And if recent results in the conference are any indication, expect chaos in Fort Collins.
Projected Conference Standings
Data through games of Fri, Mar 08.
There’s clarity at the very top and very bottom of the MW standings. Everywhere else is anybody’s best guess even at this late stage in the season. Here’s where each team stands going into the last round of games, with seed probabilities as determined by our Net Ratings through Sunday, 3/3.
UNLV
UNLV (16-1) has clinched the 1 seed regardless of Tuesday’s result at Utah State.
New Mexico
New Mexico (11-6) is in the driver’s seat among the first pack of teams despite last Saturday’s home loss to Nevada, having swept Wyoming.
2 seed: 63.8%
3 seed: 28.3%
4 seed: 7.9%
Wyoming
Wyoming (11-6) was swept by UNM and split with Boise State in the regular season. Despite a recent four-game skid, the Cowgirls have clinched a first round bye.
2 seed: 32.6%
3 seed: 59.7%
4 seed: 7.7%
Boise State
Boise State (10-7) is still lurking, holding a sweep over UNM and a split with UW, and can sneak into the 2 seed with help. A loss could potentially drop them into the second tier, finishing as low as 6th.
2 seed: 3.6%
3 seed: 12.0%
4 seed: 8.7%
5 seed: 8.9%
6 seed: 66.7%
Nevada
Nevada (9-8) holds sweeps over Boise State and San Diego State, and has a really strong chance at earning a surprising first round bye.
4 seed: 66.7%
5 seed: 23.5%
6 seed: 7.0%
7 seed: 2.8%
Colorado State
Colorado State (9-8) was picked to finish runner-up in the MW but has had several stumbles, including at San José State last Saturday. With a win Tuesday, they would hold a tiebreaker over Boise State.
4 seed: 8.9%
5 seed: 66.7%
6 seed: 16.7%
7 seed: 7.7%
San Diego State
San Diego State (9-8) still retains a chance at a first round bye, but is reeling after a 100-41 loss to league leading UNLV.
5 seed: 0.9%
6 seed: 9.6%
7 seed: 89.5%
Air Force
Air Force (8-10) has closed their regular season schedule on a three-game winning streak, and will look to continue that against Fresno State in the 8-9 matchup on Sunday.
8 seed: 52.4%
9 seed: 47.6%
Fresno State
Fresno State (7-10) has the tiebreaker over Air Force and can earn the 8 seed with a home win over New Mexico.
8 seed: 47.6%
9 seed: 52.4%
San José State
San José State (2-15) is coming off of a Senior Day upset win over Colorado State and is in position to earn the 10 seed in the conference tournament.
10 seed: >99.9%
11 seed: <0.1%
Utah State
Utah State (2-15) can clinch the 10 seed with a win in their home finale, but face daunting odds against the #24 UNLV Lady Rebels.
10 seed: <0.1%
11 seed: >99.9%
Kevin’s Broadcast Schedule: UNLV at Utah State
3/5, 6 PM MT (Mountain West Network), Logan, UT
Utah State will host the 24th ranked UNLV Lady Rebels in the final tune-up before the Mountain West tournament. Utah State needs to win to clinch the 10th seed in Vegas, while UNLV has clinched the outright regular season title. Ajay Salvesen and Kevin Floyd will be on the call on Senior Night from the Spectrum.